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Most of us here are Android power users and enthusiasts. But the past year in the industry has been disappointing for many. Though there are a couple of exceptions, most flagships have failed to ignite the passion and excitement as those of yesteryear. The primary problem, this year, is that there have been compromises —compromises everywhere. There seems to be no perfect phone, this year. From physical size and battery life to price and performance, smartphone OEMs may soon face real obstacles to making systematic improvements in their lineup year after year.

At a bare minimum, annualized smartphone releases may be a thing of the past. Even Apple—once well-known for its annual product cycle on various products—has slowed down. In the worst case, though, hardware stagnation potentially looms before us. Benchmarks AndEBench benchmarks over time We start off with benchmarks1. If we take a look at the above figure, benchmarks are in a solid upward trajectory from through … but then something happens that crashes scores across the board—that something is the Snapdragon Probably due to the widely-publicized overheating issues and the throttling put in place, the Snapdragon performs poorly in benchmarks where CPUs are taxed to their limits… and heat up.

Samsung is the outlier, here, as they used their internally-developed Exynos SoC. Though often panned in the enthusiast community for being the odd man out, it looks like Samsung may have made a good choice to stay away from the latest family of Snapdragon processors. Unlike many of the other technical specs of smartphones, the CPU is one area that can, presumably, continue improving for quite some time.

Unlike non-mobile platforms, smartphone OEMs have energy consumption and performance per watt to consider, and mobile CPUs are far behind those of desktops and servers in terms of performance.

A bigger question, though, is whether further improvements in mobile performance are necessary or useful. Even on the desktop, CPU performance is rarely a bottleneck; operating systems are light on system resources, and few games, even, push CPUs to their limits.

All of the most popular benchmarking software, such as AnTuTu and 3DMark, have undergone major revisions in that time, resulting in substantially different scores depending on the version used. AndEBench, while not popular, was developed by an industry consortium to provide a consistent performance benchmark over long periods of time. Scores were retrieved via the AndEBench site and Notebookcheck.

The fact is that RAM growth on desktops and laptops has been stagnant for years, and people do less on their mobile devices than they do on dedicated PCs. Nevertheless, most flagships are now announced or rumored to have 4 GB, so the steady upwards creep in RAM continues. DDR4 is the next step Snapdragon supports it, but the does not; newer models almost certainly will. Will DDR4 improve benchmarks?

Will it improve real world performance? Screen Size Screen size over time Screen size seems to just keep going up and up. For instance, when Motorola was bought by Google and challenged itself to design the ideal Android smartphone for the masses, it chose a 4. When Samsung internalized the complaints about the widely-panned Galaxy S5 and reinvented the series with the Galaxy S6, it chose a 5. And Apple—which, of all companies, you would assume knows something about consumer preferences and marketing—only recently introduced a phone larger than 4.

How much higher will PPI go? Just last year, Sharp unveiled a concept screen with PPI, which would meet or exceed the limits of the human eye. Little to no content exists at these resolutions to justify both the additional expense and the burden on the CPU and GPU, neither or which are trivial.

Display Resolution Display resolution over time Like screen size and screen pixel density, screen resolution is on an upward trend. Since then, screen sizes have gone up, not only due in part to consumer demand, but also due to the ability of manufacturers to manufacture denser and denser screens. Display resolution will rise as pixel density improves and screen sizes get larger.

At that point, pixel density will exceed that which the eye can see, and there will be no more reason to improve. Battery capacity is in an upward trajectory. On top of that increased physical capacity, every new iteration of Android brings with it improved efficiency and new battery-saving features; individual OEMs, too, work to optimize their phones for battery savings as best they can. There is a recurring theme in this article, though.

Additionally, battery capacity is almost certainly related to screen size—as screen sizes go up, so, too, do the physical dimensions of the phone; a larger screen means more physical space to put more battery. With screen sizes hitting their sweet spot and without radical changes in battery technology, OEMs have only one way to add more capacity—add thickness. So are they doing it? Well, we have a couple figures for that. The physical space inside of a phone is certainly increasing over time, but how much of that is due to larger screens and how much is due to added thickness?

I previously mentioned that battery capacities may be piggy-backing off of the ever-increasing screen sizes on mobile devices. Is there any evidence of that happening? Take a look at the next figure. Thickness Thickness of flagships over time The most notable thing, here, is the absence of any sort of industry-wide patterns. Some flagships are getting thicker over time, while others are getting thinner. Companies like Sony routinely pack large batteries in their phones, but they are at the bottom of the thickness charts; conversely, Motorola ranks number one for thickness, but their batteries are small.

Mass Mass of Android flagships over time I think this is an interesting figure. How many of you think about mass when phone shopping? When you think about it, though, it makes sense. Screen sizes have been going up, and so the physical dimensions of phones have been going up, too—that means more material and more weight.

Battery capacity is also increasing, which adds a lot more weight. All of these things add weight. Minimum Storage Minimum storage over time Minimum storage is something that should have gone up a long, long time ago. The price per GB of NAND storage has been dropping precipitously for years, but smartphone manufacturers loathe to pass those savings on to consumers.

Introductory storage space has remained at 16GB for most phones for five years. Rear Camera Resolution Resolution of rear camera over time Megapixels have been trending upwards, but the scatter is higher than in most other charts.

For instance, the Samsung Galaxy S6 and Note 4 both share identical hardware cameras, but the S6 takes better pictures; and newer Xperia phones take better photos if you abstain from unlocking them. Some OEMs have held megapixel counts stable, while others have even decreased the megapixel count from one generation to the next i. Despite this, image quality has generally improved over time.

How many of you remember the terrible image quality of the Galaxy Nexus camera, for instance? Anything much higher will probably result in an increase of noise, rather than an increase of image quality.

The take-home message here is that race for more megapixels is done. One such new feature that comes to mind is optical image stabilization, which has been making its way into most flagship phones. In the absence of any external information, the clear, upward-trending linear growth across nearly every smartphone specification might leave some people with the idea that this growth will continue forever—or at least unabated in the near-term.

Some specs, such as phone size and rear camera megapixel count, have reached the end of their growth, while in other areas continuous improvement will become exponentially more difficult over time as OEMs reach the limits of current technical capability. In my opinion, the annualized smartphone model is over, or will soon be over.

Below are my predictions for the future. Do you agree with them? Let us know in the comments! CPUs will improve, but does it matter? Mobile CPUs are limited by heat, efficiency, and price considerations.

RAM will increase, but slowly. Smartphones are rapidly approaching parity with laptops in terms of RAM capacity. Any larger and smartphones will have become tablets.

Sales of current phone models also show that consumers prefer moderately-sized phones to behemoths like the Nexus 6. There will always be a market for phablets, but the median size of smartphones should grow no more. Pixel density is nearing its logical conclusion.

The pixel density on flagships is already upwards of ppi, and the Galaxy S6 is approaching Sharp has already developed a prototype screen with ppi, which exceeds the limits of what the human eye can see. Display resolution will stay at QHD for years. With screen size and pixel density stagnating, resolution will stagnate, too.

Smartphones have been a driving force for improved resolution and pixel density in computer displays, but 4K may be the end-game—at least for anything smaller than a large tablet. Battery capacity may have reached its limit. Ever-growing screen sizes have given OEMs more physical space to shove bigger batteries into phones, but as screen sizes stagnate, so too do phone sizes, and OEMs have shown little interest in adding extra thickness to phones. Battery life will continue to improve.

Despite battery capacities stagnating, there is plenty of room for battery life improvement. Every new version of Android sips less battery than the last, and from screens to radios, OEMs improve efficiency where they can, too. With CPU fabrication getting smaller and DDR4 running at a lower voltages, we can expect battery life to improve even as capacity growth is at a standstill.

The digital camera industry reached the megapixel finish line years ago, and they have since focused on improving software and features to differentiate from competitors. Software makes a huge difference in image quality, as can be seen by the difference in quality between the Samsung Galaxy S6 and Note 4, despite identical camera hardware.





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